Do My Friends Care About Me?
A Brief Analysis of my Facebook Friends
This was a (not so) quick look at how I stacked up against my Facebook friends in a totally arbitrary measure.
I looked at the ratio of likes and reacts (henceforth to be referred to as a singular entity: "realikes") to a user's profile picture to that user's friend count. That is, what percentage of a user's friends realiked his or her profile picture?
I'll post a more detailed write-up of the technical aspects of scraping the Facebook profiles, as well as an iPython Notebook with the code.
The most challenging (and time consuming) part was gathering the data. I ran into several dead ends before finally scraping the data from Facebook using Selenium. I'll go through all of the failed methods and my succeessful method here.
I had already collected a list of Facebook profile URLs just using Chrome Dev Tools on the client side.
My first idea was to use the Facebook Graph API. However, that quickly proved to be impossible, mainly because this StackOverflow answer said so.
So on to the second solution! I figured I could use the python
beautifulsoup libraries to crawl Facebook, and just pass in my Facebook cookies for auth. While the authentication totally worked (exciting!), I discovered that Facebook does basically all of the rendering client side, so the HTML that I received was just a bunch of links to async scripts.
Ultimately, I resorted to Selenium to scraping first the links to profile pictures, and later, the actual realike counts.
Examining the Data
After a little bit of cleaning up in Excel, I was ready to take a deeper look at the data.
# Import our beloved libraries import pandas as pd import numpy as np import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Read in the data data = pd.read_csv('./data.csv')
# View the first 5 entries data[:5]
|# Likes on Pic||# Friends|
# This includes "bad" rows, which don't have values for either or both of the columns len(data)
# Drop the bad stuff data = data.dropna()
plt.plot(data['# Friends'], data['# Likes on Pic'], 'bo') plt.title('Realikes to Friend Count') plt.ylabel('Realikes') plt.xlabel('# Friends')
There seems to be a general upwards trend, with users with more friends receiving a greater amount of likes from friends. This makes sense, since their pictures go out to a larger audience. I am more interested in the ratio between the realike count and friend count.
Looking at the Realike Ratios
# Insert new column of the ratios. data['Ratio'] = data['# Likes on Pic'] / data['# Friends']
# First look at the ratios! Just a brief summary. data['Ratio'].describe()
count 278.000000 mean 0.158833 std 0.093243 min 0.000000 25% 0.083202 50% 0.159469 75% 0.220952 max 0.492114 Name: Ratio, dtype: float64
Ok, so this summary provides some interesting information.
Just from clicking around Facebook earlier, I had thought that the average ratio would be somewhere between 20% and 30%, but it ended up being much lower, at 15.9%.
Also interesting to note is that no one had over half of their friends like their profile picture, although the max of 49.2% came pretty close.
# Sort data by friend count data = data.sort_values(by='# Friends')
%matplotlib inline plt.plot(data['# Friends'], data.Ratio, 'bo') plt.xlabel('# Friends') plt.ylabel('Ratio') plt.title('# Friends vs Realike Ratio')
One of the biggest things I was hoping to see was a correlation between friend size and ratio. However, that did not really manifest itself. As you can see, the points are relatively evenly distributed.
# Top 5 realike ratios. data.sort_values(by='Ratio', ascending=False)[:5]
|# Likes on Pic||# Friends||Ratio|
# Bottom 5 realike ratios. data.sort_values(by='Ratio', ascending=True)[:5]
|# Likes on Pic||# Friends||Ratio|
Viewing the lowest 5 realike ratios reveals that those with the lowest friend counts do not have the lowest realike ratios.
Does Friend Count Matter?
I then took a look at the distributions for users with more than 1000 friends compared to users with fewer than 1000 friends.
It's important to note that there are significantly more users with fewer than 1000 friends in my data set.
gt1000 = data.loc[data['# Friends'] >= 1000] lt1000 = data.loc[data['# Friends'] < 1000]
count 44.000000 mean 0.173164 std 0.084129 min 0.008739 25% 0.116832 50% 0.180046 75% 0.219244 max 0.363148 Name: Ratio, dtype: float64
count 234.000000 mean 0.156139 std 0.094783 min 0.000000 25% 0.072971 50% 0.155958 75% 0.220952 max 0.492114 Name: Ratio, dtype: float64
The mean ratio for those with > 1000 friends is a little bit larger than those without, as is the median.
%matplotlib inline plt.figure(figsize=(12, 4)) plt.subplot(121) plt.plot(lt1000['# Friends'], lt1000['Ratio'], 'ro') plt.plot(gt1000['# Friends'] - 1000, gt1000['Ratio'], 'bo') plt.xlabel('# Friends') plt.ylabel('Realike Ratio')
This plot might be a little bit confusing. The red dots represents users with fewer than 1000 friends. The blue dots represents users with 1000 or more friends, but the dots are scaled so as to align with the red dots (by subtracting 1000 from the friend count).
What does this reveal? Not much. There are more red dots in the upper right corner than blue dots, but the points are spread evenly enough where this is insignificant.
Looking at Friend Counts
As an aside, I took a look at the distribution of friend counts.
count 278.000000 mean 656.589928 std 395.612176 min 22.000000 25% 371.750000 50% 564.500000 75% 841.750000 max 2403.000000 Name: # Friends, dtype: float64
Conclusion? My friends, on average, have twice as many friends as I do. Sad.
plt.figure(figsize=(16, 8)) plt.subplot(121) plt.boxplot(data['# Friends']) plt.ylabel('# Friends') plt.subplot(122) plt.hist(data['# Friends'], bins=20) plt.ylabel('Freq.') plt.xlabel('# Friends') plt.title('How Many Friends My Friends Have')
As shown by the box plot and, perhaps more obviously, by the histogram, the distribution of friend counts is skewed right, accounting for the large difference between mean friend count and median friend count. Either way, I look to be pretty anti-social.
I can't really draw any statistically significant conclusions from these data. That said, there were some trends that were insightful or interesting to some extent.
Quality over Quantity
It's apparent that having a higher friend count does not necessarily result in a higher realike ratio. For 4 of the top 5 ranked realike users, the friend count was below the third quartile. In fact, the user with the highest friend count (2403 friends) had one of the lowest ratios (.8%)
That said, by examining the bottom 5, almost all were below the median friend count. This seems to imply that having too few friends is also not ideal.
Given these very broad generalizations, one can make the logical ssumption that there is a "Goldilocks zone" of friend count that yields that highest ratio. However, the data is probably much to scattered to be able to actually generate a useful model.
An Individualized Analysis
This data set was composed of only my friends. This meant the data set was tailored uniquely to my choice of friends, which are mostly high schoolers in the NOVA area.
There are quite a few paths in which I can proceed with this little experiment, if I want to. For one thing, it would be great to acquire more data, and, now that I think of it, generally profile pictures and friend counts are public, so I could expand the data set to beyond my friends.
Looking at the contents of the profile picture would also be interesting. For example, in pictures that were especially popular, were there multiple people? What is the gender / age / etc of the subject? However, this will be a much more nontrivial task.